Brian, thanks for the video and spreadsheet that attempts to estimate the value of a Republic Note. I was conducting a “back-of-the-envelope” calculation for myself, and stumbled upon your post.
I’m astonished that it seems that they may sell out of the Note. My base case assumptions are somewhere between your “Typical” and “Pessimistic” scenarios, and I’m dubious that the Note will prove to be a good investment. I decided to take a flyer and purchase some, but that was more for about putting some value on the perks they’re promising to give than any belief that the Note will be worth it.
I suspect that after this initial hype that the price will plunge after a year or two when people figure out no dividends will be paid out for a long while. In the Republic Note documents, they state that in 2019 they had less than $2,000 worth of proceeds eligible for distribution. Yet, the accumulated proceeds have to be $2M before they even decide to pay out. So basically, they’re going to have to more than 1000X what they got last year before anyone might get a distribution, and even if that happens, assuming 800M Notes are issued, that basically means you’ll get $2.50 per 1,000 tokens. Since 1,000 tokens is being sold for $120 in this offering, it means that every once (a year? two years? never? maybe, hopefully every month?) in a while you’ll get $2.50 toward your $120 investment.
I’m going to have to put a reminder in my tickler for 3 years from now to see the going rate for a Republic Note will be then.