FYI – these assumptions (minor changes to my spreadsheet) would result in a much more optimistic 5-10 year picture.
- Assume Notes in circulation is 400M instead of 800M (which will be more accurate for the first few years)
- Assume 200 new public companies per year (zero growth) and 50 new private companies each year (zero growth)
As you can see, these few changes in assumptions would give a much more optimistic outlook for the 10 year and 15 year payouts for the typical and optimistic cases.
