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FYI – here is a question I got that I want to clarify (the page was temporarily down, but has been fixed):

**Question:***(1) I’m confused as to how assuming zero new company growth rate would result in favorable deltas in the payout calculations. Fewer new companies mean fewer chances for a profitable outcome. Concretely, it seems to me you’re saying that setting “Republic New Company Annual Growth Rate” to zero leads to higher payouts, which it (sensibly) doesn’t.**(2) The optimistic growth rate seems high to me. Having to evaluate 200 companies a year is already a time sink. Growing the number of new companies by 35% seems high. People will start facing the “paradox of choice”– having too many items to choose from will lead to analysis paralysis.***My Clarification:**1) Sorry for the confusion. What I meant was that – by assuming 200 new companies in Year 1 (next year) instead of the initial assumption (35% YoY continual growth on the ~124 companies) and then keeping the growth rate flat at 200 companies/year for simplicity’s sake (not realistic), then that would be a

*conservative*assumption that, if the 200 companies/year are realized next year, would under-predict the real-world results that would likely see years 2-15 at higher number of companies than 200/year. Even if the growth rate on adding 200 companies per year is lower at say 5-10% per year, it would be a much more optimistic picture than the original analysis. So a 0% growth rate on the 200 companies/year in the model is likely under-predicting the true value (assuming they can hit that next year).2) Agreed – which is why, for being conservative and simplistic, I just assumed that they can hit 200 companies/year next year and then maintain that level in the coming years.

What the model should

*really*do if I had the time is start with a much higher growth rate in say years 1-3 (maybe 100%, 200%, etc., which is what they’ve been experiencing), but then move down to something much more conservative, which could be as low as 5-10% in the later years.